[wanita-muslimah] Megawati and Kalla: Dream Team?

 

Ref: Dibilang bahwa arwah-arwah jahat bersemayam pada pohon beringin. Jadi kalau  banteng lesu yang imumnya sudah luntur bernaung dibawah pohon beringin maka tentu saja mudah kemasukan arwah jahat. Guna banteng lesu berenergi untuk membajak tanah petani atau dipakai untuk pekerjaan-pekerjaan lain sudah tidak bisa diharapkan, demikian cerita penduduk desa.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/megawati-and-kalla-dream-team/558930

Megawati and Kalla: Dream Team?
Aleksius Jemadu | November 30, 2012

"The time will tell whether Megawati's nationalistic proclivities combined with Kalla's entrepreneurship can make their shared dream come true."

 

When Golkar Party stalwart Akbar Tanjung told the media that former Vice President Jusuf Kalla was considering approaching former President Megawati Sukarnoputri to form a ticket in the 2014 presidential elections, the news immediately attracted much media attention.

There are at least two reasons why the idea of pairing Megawati with Kalla in the 2014 presidential election is newsworthy.

First, both Megawati and Kalla still command wide respect within their parties, and therefore their popular base of political support cannot be underestimated. While Megawati can capitalize on the loyalty of her traditional supporters within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Kalla still has great influence within Golkar, especially in his own province of South Sulawesi, one the party's strongholds outside Java.

Second, Megawati and Kalla also have had extensive experience in the government, as a former president and vice president respectively. Thus, they are in the best position to understand the weaknesses of the current government and might also have some fresh ideas on how to make it work better.

Two approaches can be used to evaluate the merit of the pair. First, we can evaluate them on the basis of their own credentials as political leaders without comparing them with their possible contenders in the 2014 presidential election.

Megawati has never been successful in a direct presidential election. She tried in 2004 and 2009 with different vice presidential candidates but she failed in those elections. Kalla was successful when he ran as the running mate of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2004 but then when he tried again as presidential candidate in 2009 he failed.

Now if Megawati and Kalla want to run again in 2014, the question that they will have to answer is this. Is there something new in their latest nomination that makes them more worthy of popular support than in the previous trials? They may have a plan to correct their past mistakes but that alone is not a guarantee that people will trust them more in the coming presidential election.

The second approach involves making a comparison. In any competition, the strength of the candidates is always relative because voters will compare them with their contenders. As things stand today, the most serious presidential contenders are Aburizal Bakrie from Golkar and Prabowo Subianto from Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).

It is interesting to note that Golkar leaders seem very careful when they comment on the partnership of Megawati and Kalla. The only reason behind their reluctance to condemn Kalla's exit from Golkar is that they know all too well that Kalla is still popular among the Golkar rank and file. On top of that, they may realize that if Megawati and Kalla succeed in 2014 it will be easy for Kalla to orchestrate his comeback to Golkar and marginalize a defeated Aburizal.

Regardless of their popularity within their respective political parties, Megawati and Kalla will face an uphill battle. Megawati's biggest challenge is mobilizing popular support beyond her "captive market" of PDI-P traditional loyalists. How can she convince the Indonesian public that she has the ability to reproduce the success of the current government in sustaining high economic growth and political stability despite the world economic slowdown? After all, it was President Yudhoyono who managed to fix the mistakes of her 2001 to 2004 presidency so that Indonesia could accelerate its economic growth.

When Kalla ran for president in 2009 with retired general Wiranto, their electoral achievement was mediocre. One reason for their poor performance was that incumbent President Yudhoyono was quite strong. Now the political landscape has changed. Whether Megawati and Kalla can spectacularly increase their electoral support will depend on the public's perception of their synergy in addressing the shortcomings of the current government.

Time will tell whether Megawati's nationalistic and populist proclivities combined with Kalla's aggressive entrepreneurship can make their shared dream come true.

Aleksius Jemadu is dean of the School of Government and Global Affairs at Universitas Pelita Harapan in Karawaci.

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