umumnya penguasa yang langgeng itu adalah mau berbabagi kasih sayang pada
rakyatnya dan berbuat adil (saling mencintai, menghormati dan mendoakan kebaikan
antara penguasa dan rakyat), begitu menjauhi kasih sayang dan menjauhi keadilan,
maka tidak peduli sistem atau model kekuasaan yang diterapkan, akan segera
ditumbangkan rakyatnya sendiri, itulah yang terjadi pada tunisia, yaman dan
mesir, menyusul libya, nah bagaimana dengan arab saudi ?
----- Pesan Asli ----
Dari: Wikan Danar Sunindyo <wikan.danar@gmail.com>
Kepada: wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com
Terkirim: Rab, 2 Maret, 2011 20:51:46
Judul: [wanita-muslimah] Apakah Arab berikutnya? Re: Di Libya bukan demo tetapi
pemberontakan
Dari Tunisia, Mesir, Yaman, Bahrain terus ke Libya
mungkinkah Arab berikutnya?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-748089,00.html
Can Oil Money Buy Political Stability?
By Bernhard Zand
The slightest uncertainty about the stability of Saudi Arabia, one of
the world's biggest oil producers, is enough to make the markets
nervous. Now analysts and politicians around the world are waiting
anxiously to see if the wave of unrest in the Arab world will spread
to the kingdom.
Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz, the 86-year-old king of Saudi Arabia who also
holds the title Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, was suffering from
back pain last fall. He apparently had a slipped disk.
As is usually the case when a leading member of the house of Saud
needs to see a doctor, he and his entourage boarded three jumbo jets
and headed to the West -- specifically, to New York, where the VIP
wing of New York-Presbyterian Hospital was already reserved for him.
The news of his departure was enough to trigger a moment of
deliberation in the world of geostrategists and oil speculators. After
all, Saudi Arabia pumps about 9 million barrels of crude oil a day, or
one-ninth of world production. The kingdom is the only oil exporter
with what is known as swing capacity, or the ability to
single-handedly offset the loss of production in any other OPEC
country, thereby temporarily stabilizing the oil price.
In addition, Saudi Arabia, a state that is a few years younger than
its geriatric king, is on the verge of a major dynastic change. Until
now, all of the men who have ruled the country since the death of its
founder Ibn Saud in 1953 have been his sons. Even the youngest of
those sons is now 65. It is only a question of time before the line of
succession goes to the second generation -- and a question of which of
the roughly 20 sons still alive has enough power to turn his own sons
into kings.
Uneasy Recuperation
In early December, doctors in New York removed a blood clot in
Abdullah's back. In late January he traveled to Morocco to stay in his
brother's palace near Agadir, as he usually does when he needs to
recuperate. But as it turned out, it would not be a relaxing stay.
A week earlier, the Tunisians had ousted their president, Zine El
Abidine Ben Ali, and the Egyptian revolution began two days later. For
two torturous weeks King Abdullah watched as his friend Hosni Mubarak,
the now-deposed Egyptian president, struggled in vain to remain in
power. Revolts in Bahrain, Yemen and Libya followed.
The Arab world to which Abdullah had returned was no longer the same
one it had been a few weeks earlier, when he left for New York. When
Abdullah arrived in the Saudi capital Riyadh last Wednesday, it was no
longer just geostrategists and oil speculators who were asking
themselves whether Saudi Arabia could be next.
It is the billion-dollar question of the Arab revolution -- literally.
That is roughly the sum the kingdom earns every day at the current oil
price of about $114 (€83) a barrel. Until its revolution began, Libya
was producing about 1.6 million barrels a day. The mere idea that
Libyan production might no longer be available to the oil market in
the future drove up the price of oil by $10 a barrel last week.
Deeply Conservative
What, then, happens if the revolutionary virus infects Saudi Arabia?
Is this even a realistic threat? Despite its pre-modern, antiquated
system of government, the kingdom is considered to be one of the most
stable countries in the Arab world. The overwhelming majority of the
population is strongly influenced by tribal loyalties that have
developed over centuries, and by a deeply conservative worldview
derived from Wahhabism, one of the strictest schools of Islam. So far,
the leadership has allowed no more modernization than the bare minimum
that is required for the state to function. It is mainly the half of
the population without rights that suffers as a result, namely women.
However, this archaic social contract is supported by Saudi Arabia's
enormous wealth, which the rulers distribute with patriarchal skill.
Real poverty of the sort that prevails in neighboring Yemen and which
fueled revolutionary fervor in Egypt is not widespread in Saudi
Arabia.
Nevertheless, the composure with which Abdullah departed for New York
in November has given way to deep uncertainty. Shortly before setting
foot on Saudi soil again on Wednesday, when he arrived from Agadir, he
had his government announce that he was increasing the amount the
government spends to help young Saudi Arabians buy houses, start
families and establish businesses, from about €9 billion to €17
billion. He also said that wages for government employees were to be
increased by 15 percent to offset increases in the cost of living.
None of his predecessors had ever shown such a sudden burst of
generosity.
Apparently the mere perusal of his flight route from Morocco to Saudi
Arabia, over Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, was enough to make the
king realize how much his country, all differences aside, resembles
the countries in turmoil below.
Lust for Life
Jeddah and Riyadh are home to just as many young people who are keen
to enjoy life as Tunis and Cairo. They are equally avid tweeters and
share their experiences on Facebook just as enthusiastically as their
Egyptian and Tunisian contemporaries. And, as in much of the Arab
world, Saudi Arabia's leadership is remarkably old compared with its
young population. The average age of a cabinet minister in Riyadh is
65.
Corruption among the elite is also rampant in Saudi Arabia. The
excesses of the Saudi royal family, which has grown to include almost
7,000 members, are less visible under Abdullah's reign than under that
of his flamboyant predecessor King Fahd. Nevertheless, no young,
politically interested Saudi Arabian can fail to notice that every car
dealership, every gas station and every five-star hotel is a source of
income for at least one member of the royal family.
Some of the frustrations that led to the undoing of former Tunisian
President Ben Ali and former Egyptian President Mubarak could have an
even more drastic impact in Saudi Arabia's comparatively affluent
society. It is precisely because young Saudis are relatively well
educated, mobile and have widespread access to Western television and
the Internet that many perceive unemployment and the bigotry and
narrow focus of the Wahhabi regime as particularly oppressive.
Even in Saudi Arabia, blessed as it is with prosperity, the first
signs of protest are now emerging. Last week, several hundred
dissatisfied Shiites took to the streets near the city of Qatif, and
in Riyadh 40 intellectuals presented the king with an open letter
demanding political reforms. The first revolutionary Facebook pages
have already appeared, with one of them openly calling for the
overthrow of the regime and a "Revolution of Longing" to begin on
March 11.
'Time Bomb'
In an interview with SPIEGEL several years ago, Prince Al-Waleed bin
Talal, a multi-billionaire, described the fact that many young Saudi
Arabians had no work as a "time bomb." They are not unemployed because
there are no jobs, but because most work is performed by foreign
migrant workers.
Last Thursday Al-Waleed, who is a nephew of the king, issued an even
stronger warning. In an opinion piece in the New York Times, he wrote:
"Unless many Arab governments adopt radically different policies,
their countries will very likely experience more political and civil
unrest." The facts, Walid added, are undeniable, with youth
unemployment at 20 percent or more in most Arab countries, the
standard of living of the middle classes declining under rising
inflation, and a widening "gap between the haves and the have-nots."
A few days earlier, Prince Al-Waleed's father, Talal bin Abdul-Aziz,
put things even more directly. The population, said Talal bin
Abdul-Aziz, a half-brother of King Abdullah who is known for his
straight talking, want more than handouts. Instead, they are demanding
political reforms and a share of power. If the king does not fulfill
this hope, he added, "it will be very dangerous for our country."
The kingdom is facing more than just a billion-dollar question. It is
being confronted with the question of whether it is possible to buy
stability.
Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan
2011/3/2 Abdul Muiz <muizof@yahoo.com>
>
>
>
> Indonesia sudah punya konstitusi, punya parlemen saja masih banyak keanehan,
> apalagi Libya yang tidak punya konstitusi dan parlemen dan berjalan 42 tahun
> tanpa perubahan kebebasan politik, dan sosial diberangus, wajar kalau
rakyatnya
> yang sudah mulai pinter merasa jengah dengan kepemimpinan otoriter dan
>totaliter
> model muammar qadafi, ditambah lagi tetangganya yaman, tunisia, dan mesir
sudah
> dihembus angin perestroika (keterbukaan) dan hembusan makin kencang ke Libya.
>
> Ini ada artikel terbaru tentang mengapa Muammar Qadafi membenci osama
> http://www.slate.com/id/2286402/
>
> Wassalam
>
> Abdul Mu'iz
>
> ________________________________
> Dari: "aldiy@yahoo.com" <aldiy@yahoo.com>
>
> Kepada: wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com
> Terkirim: Rab, 2 Maret, 2011 17:51:24
> Judul: Re: Bls: [wanita-muslimah] Re: Di Libya bukan demo tetapi pemberontakan
>
> Apa hubungan antara keanehan Libya dan Indonesia? Pak Chodjim sudah
> mengungkapkan, gimana nih AlQaida dituduh Qadafi, sedangkan Pak HMNA mendukung
> keduanya. Anak Qadafi minta fatwa ulama Saudi tapi ditolak mentah2, kenapa elu
> bunuhin rakyatmu sendiri, kok sekarang minta fatwa sama gw? Kilah ulama Saudi.
>
> Sebaiknya temen2 jangan mikirin keanehan Libya dong, kasih jalan keluar pada
> keanehan yang terjadi di WM ini, kenapa ada postingan yang mendoakan Qadafi,
> kasih advis kepada HMNA yang lagi bingung, kok Al Qaida dan ulama Saudi malah
> musuhin Qadafi? Kalau Yudi, Istiadji, HMNA dkk bingung biasanya sasarannya
> zionis. Mungkin mba Lina ada saran utk dilema yg dihadapi HMNA dkk ni?...:-)
>
> Salam
> Mia
> Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung
>Teruuusss...!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Abdul Muiz <muizof@yahoo.com>
> Sender: wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com
> Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2011 17:54:23
> To: <wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com>
> Reply-To: wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: Bls: [wanita-muslimah] Re: Di Libya bukan demo tetapi pemberontakan
>
> lho bukan soal mencari keanehan, memang negara mana selain Libya yang tidak
> punya konstitusi ? tidak ada parlemen tidak ada kontrol ? katanya jabatan itu
> amanah, lha kok tidak memberikan kesempatan kepada yang lain ?? lha Muammar
> Qadafi kan tidak merasa perlu turun dari kekuasaan karena memang tidak ada
> aturan masa kerja bagi sang pemimpin revolusi untuk turun panggung politik.
> Kalau tidak salah ada hadits nabi yang menganjurkan jangan terlalu lama
> menduduki posisi amanah karena banyak potensi fitnah.
>
> ________________________________
> Dari: Lina <linadahlan@yahoo.com>
> Kepada: wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com
> Terkirim: Rab, 2 Maret, 2011 16:27:06
> Judul: [wanita-muslimah] Re: Di Libya bukan demo tetapi pemberontakan
>
> Mang kalo mo dicari keanehannya pasti ada aja. Indonesia apa juga bukan negara
> aneh? wuiih banyak keanehan di Indonesia juga.
>
> Apa dunk yang mo dijadiin standard bhw sebuah negara gak aneh or seorang
> pemimpin berhasil? rakyatnya makmur??? demokrasi berjaya? Bagaimana kalau
harus
> memilih: Rakyat melarat, Demokrasi berjaya ato sebaliknya? Katanya Libya
pernah
> menjadi negara terkaya di Afrika.
>
> Kite pikirin aje deh Indonesia kite ini. Gimana biar gak aneh. Gimana biar
>mafia
>
> pajak gak sakti. Ane kepengen sakti neh, ape perlu jadi mafia pajak??? Gimana
> biar gak dibilang Negara Kebohongan Republik Indonesia (NKRI). Gimana biar
> Nurdin Halid punya rasa malu...
>
> Resiko jadi penguasa, yaaak turun gak jadi penguasa lagi entah dengan cara
apa.
> Siap siap aja. Sby juga lagi siap siap...he he he...aneh gak kalo ibu Any jadi
> Presiden. Aneh gak Gus Dur (dulu) bisa jadi Presiden.
>
> Mang dah waktunya Qadafi turun lah tuk istirohat. Tinggal diitung itung dosa
>dan
>
> jasanya. Resiko jadi penguasa terkenal.
>
> wassalam,
>
> --- In wanita-muslimah@yahoogroups.com, Abdul Muiz عبد المعز
> <muizof@...> wrote:
> >
> > Libya memang negara aneh lain dari yang lain :
> >
> > 1) Muammar Qadafi menamakan dirinya pemimpin revolusi setelah mengkudeta
Raja
> >Idris, karena status pemimpin revolusi maka dia merasa tidak punya batasan
>masa
>
> >kerja, karena itu tidak mengenal impeachment alias tidak ada kamus turun dari
> >kekuasaan yang dia pegang.
> > 2) Meskipun Muammar Qadafi juga merupakan kepala negara namun secara
> >administratif, sistem pemerintahannya tetap diserahkan atau dipegang oleh
> >seorang perdana mentri lihat link ini
> >http://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daftar_Perdana_Menteri_Libya
> > 3) Sejak Muammar Qadafi tampil sebagai pemimpin revolusi, Libya tidak punya
> >konstitusi (UUD) sampai sekarang, sebagai gantinya adalah buku hijau yang
>berisi
> >
> >tulisan dan pokok-pokok pikiran Muammar yang dicetak secara masal dan menjadi
> >bacaan wajib bagi warga negaranya.
> > 4) Libya tidak memiliki parlemen (DPR) sebagai gantinya ada dewan komando
> >revolusioner (1969 - 1979) kemudian dilanjutkan dengan kongres Rakyat (jangan
> >diharap ada persidangan yang menyangkut umat/bangsa libya melalui perdebatan
> >seru), dengan tidak adanya parpol otomatis tidak ada pemilu atau pesta
>demokrasi
> >
> >bagi rakyat libya.
> > 5) Militer dilemahkan secara sistemik, profesionalitas tentaranya tidak
> >dibangun secara serius, ini dimaksudkan supaya tidak ada kudeta dari pihak
> >militer, sebagai gantinya Muammar Qadafi membangun jaringan keamanan dengan
> >melibatkan kepala-kepala suku yang dipastikan loyal kepada dirinya dan
> >dipersenjatai ala militer.
> > 6) untuk mengintai dan membasmi lawan politik, Muammar Qadafi tidak
>segan-segan
> >
> >mengupah preman-preman dari luar negeri (kebanyakan dari nigeria dan negara
> >tetangga dekat) untuk menghabisi (membunuh) lawan politik atau tokoh yang
> >dinilai vokal terhadap kepemimpinannya, dengan mengupah sistem kontrak putus,
> >maka Muammar Qadafi tidak perlu ambil pusing untuk mempermasalahkan hukum
>karena
> >
> >memang dilakukan secara illegal dan rahasia.
> > 7) Media massa elektronik tidak dikembangkan secara profesional, nanny
wijaya
> >(wartawati jawa pos) pernah melaporkan bahwa untuk menyampaikan berita di TV
> >Libya, siapapun warga negaranya dapat mengantri untuk tampil sebagai pembaca
> >berita tanpa perlu seleksi kelayakan atau persyaratan layaknya reporter
> >profesional.
> > 8) Muammar Qadafi merekrut pengawal pribadi kurang lebih 40 orang dengan
>jenis
>
> >kelamin perempuan, salah satu syaratnya adalah perawan, dilatih mahir
>bertempur,
> >
> >berkelahi dan menembak. Setiap kunjungan ke luar negeri Muammar Qadafi tidak
> >hanya membawa pengawal perempuan dengan nama guard amazone tetapi tidak
pernah
> >lupa membawa tenda boduein plus fasilitas/peralatan lux yang cukup banyak
> >menyerap anggaran negara.
> > 9) Saif al Islam adalah salah satu anak kebanggan Muammar Qadafi yang
> > digadang-gadang menjadi pengganti atau putra mahkota adalah berpendidikan
>cukup
> >
> >tinggi, bachelor science diselesaikan di Tripoli, MBA diselesaikan di Swis,
>dan
>
> >Phd diselesaikan dengan normal di London (kalau tidak salah ada isyu saif al
> >islam ini memplagiat diserthasi Doktornya). Semula banyak pengamat menilai
>sang
>
> >putra mahkota akan bertindak liberal dan demokratis, namun ternyata sikap dan
> >sepak terjangnya justru lebih keras daripada Mumamar Qadafi, konon dia yang
> >mengatur demo massa bayaran pro pada Muammar untuk menandingi demo anti
>Muammar,
> >
> >dan dia juga yang mengatur meresponse aksi kekerasan dengan cara menembaki
>para
>
> >demonstran termasuk meroket masjid. Aksinya ini banyak memicu keterkejutan
> >koleganya di kampus London tempat dia menamatkan Phdnya.
> >
> > Meskipun dalam masa selama 42 tahun pemerintahan Qadafi sudah merealisasikan
> >banyak projek pembangunan dan memajukan infrastruktur (antara lain pembuatan
> >sungai di bawah tanah Sahara, yang merupakan proyek besar di dunia) dan
> >mengundang berbagai maskapai besar internasional untuk pemboran minyak dan
>gas,
>
> >namun di berbagai bidang lainnya (antara lain : pemerintahan, politik,
> >ekonomi,sosial, kebudayaan) merupakan hambatan untuk kemajuan rakyat dan
>menjadi
> >
> >
> > alat Qadafi untuk penindasan.
> >
> > Wassalam
> > Abdul Mu'iz
> _._,___
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
------------------------------------
=======================
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