http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s3.html#scen
Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate
The fictional scenario portrayed below provides an example of how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity could emerge. Under this scenario, a new Caliphate is proclaimed and manages to advance a powerful counter ideology that has widespread appeal. It is depicted in the form of a hypothetical letter from a fictional grandson of Bin Ladin to a family relative in 2020. He recounts the struggles of the Caliph in trying to wrest control from traditional regimes and the conflict and confusion which ensue both within the Muslim world and outside between Muslims and the United States, Europe, Russia and China. While the Caliph�s success in mobilizing support varies, places far outside the Muslim core in the Middle East�in Africa and Asia�are convulsed as a result of his appeals. The scenario ends before the Caliph is able to establish both spiritual and temporal authority over a territory�which historically has been the case for previous Caliphates. At the end of the scenario, we identify lessons to be drawn.
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